Thresholds and Your Education: Dr. John V. Griffith's Opening Convocation Speech
Genesis 1:26-31

September 8, 2009

At what temperature does water freeze?  At what temperature does water boil?  You’ve likely known the answers to these two questions for a long time, maybe since second grade, certainly by 5th or 6th grade. The points, the temperatures, at which these occur, are called thresholds. 

How do we know this to be true?  How did we determine these thresholds at the beginning, before they were known, before we had thermometers?  It may have gone something like this.  For centuries we had observed that when it gets very cold, water eventually freezes.  And, when we put water over a fire, it gets hot, eventually boils, and then vanishes as steam.  Can we know when this is going to happen?  Hmmm!  We need something to measure temperature.  Something that would tell us in a reliable manner that the water is cooling or heating.  Then we had to see what the reading was on this new instrument when water froze, when water boiled, and assign to those points some value; let’s say zero when water freezes and 100 when it boils.  Then we had to repeat this numerous times to see if it always happened at the same point on the scale we developed:  0 when it froze; 100 when it boiled.   We did it; we conducted an experiment; we did it again and again; we discovered the thresholds when something dramatically different happened to the water. 

And now we can control it.  We can make it happen; we can prevent it from happening.  Think of all the implications of this knowledge, of being able to control these two thresholds.  Think of all that this knowledge has made possible for us!

I share this with you because I want to talk with you about some of today’s threshold problems, solving them, and your PC education.

Some threshold problems are cataclysmic in nature.  Here is one about the extinction of the dinosaurs.  Let’s assume the truth of the theory that a giant meteor hit earth with such force that it sent huge masses of debris into the atmosphere, caused massive volcanic eruptions that added more debris in the atmosphere, and that eventually the warming rays of the sun were blocked from keeping the earth at the temperature necessary to support existing life.   The threshold problem for this scenario could be phrased like this: what is the concentration level of particles in the atmosphere that is sufficient to block the warmth of the sun; the earth cools; and the dinosaurs die? 

At the opening chapel of this academic year, I illustrated how hard this particular type of threshold problem is for us to solve.  I want to demonstrate why that is the case.  The water in this pitcher represents the particles of debris blasted into earth’s atmosphere from the meteor hit, the vase represents earth’s atmosphere.  In a minute, I’m going to start pouring the water into the vase.  When the vase overflows we have reached the threshold, the point at which the temperature of the world has cooled to the level that the dinosaurs die. 

Those of you who were at chapel have seen this so you can help get the responses to this demonstration going.  What I want you to do is to tell me when to stop pouring.  While I am pouring, I want you to think about how you know when to say stop.  What tells you that it is time to stop?  I want you to yell stop when you think I should.  Right here!  You need to yell it.  And then I’ll stop and ask you how you know.  So don’t yell unless you have a good reason for me to stop.  There is an important motivating assumption here: we desperately want the dinosaurs to live.  OK.  Here I go.  Now tell me when to stop and how you know that I should stop! 

There is an interesting assumption in this experiment.  It is the assumption that we could control the meteor and thereby reduce or eliminate the amount of particles sent into the atmosphere.  And of course, we could not stop that meteor.

So what does this have to do with your PC education?  Perhaps you can see how it might relate to your courses in the sciences, but, what about history, religion, political science, mathematics, economics, or the arts?  What about philosophy and sociology?

Freshmen, you’ll discover that your PC education has a lot to offer in helping you address threshold problems.  Upperclassmen and, in particular, seniors, whom we honor today, I suspect you already know how and why!  So, stay with me on this for a bit longer.   I want to be sure you know how relevant this place is to the threshold issues you face.

For the first time in the history of the world, for the first time since human beings have walked on the face of the earth, we live in a time – the era of your grandparents, your parents, and your lives –when we are the ones holding the pitcher for the biggest threshold problems of our day.   Let me say that again.  For the first time in the history of humankind, we are ones that hold the pitcher; we are the ones pouring.  It likely started with our discovery of how to use coal and oil to power the machines that assist us in living.  It accelerated with the discovery of medicines to cure diseases and extend the life expectancy of the human race.  It leaped forward with the discovery of nuclear power, the establishment of a global economy, and the expectation of a middle class standard of living for all people in all the corners of the earth.  Surely these are good and valuable without question.

We have all recently witnessed, perhaps participated in, one threshold problem that became very public last year.  It had to do with our global economy.  The question was posed: How much debt can we take on and how many times can it be packaged and resold before the connection with the underlying value is gone and we are no longer able to repay it, leading to an economic collapse?

• Who asked this question?
  
  
• What are the assumptions behind the economic practices at play?
  
  
• Who worked on the answers?
  
  
• What were the values and concepts central to making an informed decision?
  
  
• Were there warning signs of collapse?
  
  
• Who was monitoring them and who had the authority to make and enforce responses?  Who could say stop?  Who could enforce a stop?
  
  
• Can the disastrous outcomes be avoided in the future?

These are questions for a liberal arts education: questions of logic, questions of economic theory, questions of historical trends, questions of ethics and belief, questions of governance and political theory, questions of statistical analysis and interpretation, questions of esthetics and the quality of life.

From where I sit, I don’t think our country, our world, did a very good job with this threshold problem.  We are having to pick up the pieces and try to put humpty dumpty back together again!  Oh, we will succeed in doing that and we all will live to enjoy other periods of considerable prosperity.  However, the new economic covenant will likely look different.  I for one want people with a PC-type education involved in helping to form that covenant.

Now there are at least two, even bigger threshold problems looming that share all of the characteristics of the meteor hitting the earth.  The difference is – we are the meteor – we hold the pitcher. 

One is the rapidly growing population of our world.  Here is the threshold question. What is the threshold point where the Earth’s resources are no longer able to support its population?    As of today September 8, 2009 the Earth's population is estimated by the United States Census Bureau to be 6.8 billion.  By 2040 it is expected to be about 9 billion.  You’ll be in your late forties and early fifties.  You’ll be teachers, doctors, lawyers, research scientists, government leaders, heads of bank, and captains of industry, parents, grandparents, and church leaders.  At what point is the land unable to produce enough grain to feed the population; at what point is there insufficient fresh water to quench our thirst: at what point are living conditions so crowded that uncontrolled war and disease break out? 

So here we stand holding a pitcher that represents future births and we pour humankind into planet earth.  Can you conduct this experiment?  Can you stand above like God and see with certainty when it is time to stop; that we need to change course.  How do you solve this problem in India, in China, in Africa, in the United States? 

What social policies could be in place to control growth; how do you distribute food and health care?  How do we care for the elderly?  What role does your faith play in decision making?  How do you govern to avoid war in the presence of reduced, unevenly distributed resources?

Here is another very big threshold problem.

The amount of carbon dioxide trapped in our atmosphere has been increasing steadily since the 1930’s.  It comes out of our furnaces, out of our factories, out of our cars.  CO2 traps heat from the sun that is reflected off the earth.  It is like a giant coalescing mirror surrounding the earth.  And so, the earth is warming: 10 of the past 12 summers have been the hottest in recorded history.  India and China will soon have more cars than the United States by a factor of at least two.  Both already emit more CO2.  Scientists are beginning to talk about when life could end on planet earth as we know it.

Now, conjure up our little experiment.  You have your finger prints on the handle of the pitcher, I have mine…and we are pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere of the world.  It’s my car; it’s the factories in China, India, and Mexico that produce my stereo, my polo shirt; it’s the tractors that plant, till, and harvest the fields that produce my oatmeal.  Here is the threshold question:  What is the point when the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere causes the earth to heat to the level when life as we know it ends?  We’re holding the pitcher and this time we are the dinosaurs!  We look around us and we see that ice caps are melting; glaciers are receding; the levels of the oceans are rising; the earth is getting warmer and we say seek a world that is sustainable. Sustainable…and yet, we need fossil fuels; we need cars and airplanes to get around, we need factories to produce the stuff we need – we want, we need furnaces to keep warm…some level of CO2 admissions is sustainable…sustainable is the great rallying call of our time.

Who out there can ask the right questions?  Who can conceptualize how best to answer those questions?  What experiments can we conduct to determine sustainability?  What will we learn?  Who are the individuals, where are the communities, which are the nations that have the will to take on what they come to understand about sustainability.

Last year at opening convocation, I announced a gift to the PC community of $30,000.  It was a challenge gift.   We were challenged to look at questions of sustainability and figure out what we are going to do about it.  Dr. Inman agreed to chair a task force of students, faculty and staff that selected projects to fund from those submitted by members of our community, people who asked questions and are seeking answers.  And so this year, we are carrying out those projects and having a year – long conversation about these issues.  We began with the freshmen reading assignment: Deep Economy; we’ve turned the soil for an organic garden…down by the soccer stadium…and GDH will purchase what we grow for us to eat;  we received a $500,000 grant from BB&T to explore capitalism; we have set a year-long sustainability theme for both the Russell Program in Media, Technology, and Society and the Lillian and Marshall Brown Program in International Studies; the opening symposium for our Confucius Institute will examine Two Nations – Three Issues: China and America – The Economy, Energy, and our Environment; and I hope sustainability will be the focus of countless discussions and debates in the residence halls, at My Friends Bookstore, in our classrooms, and in GDH and Springs.

I think this is one of the most exciting and challenging periods in the history of the world.  I would like to be starting my college education, educating myself to tackle these threshold problems.  Think of the opportunities that lie before you.  Think of the issues, the challenges you get to wrestle to the ground.  Think of the difference you can make.

When you leave here today you’ll have an email from me.  Starting this afternoon and in the days ahead, I would like to hear your response to this question: How do you know when we should put the brakes on the pumping of CO2 in to the Earth’s atmosphere?  How would you apply the brakes?  What would you do personally?  What should we do at PC?  What would you have our nation do?  When you turn on your Blackberrys or check your email at your room or office, these questions will be there.  Think about them and send me your thoughts.  I will post a representative sample, without attribution, so that we can expand this conversation and invite others to join us. 

Then God said, “Let us make man in our image, after our likeness; and let then have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the birds of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the earth, and over every living thing that creeps upon the earth.  So God created man in his own image; male and female he created them.  (Behold, I have given you everything.)  And God saw everything that he had made, and behold, it was very good.  And there was evening and there was morning, a sixth day.”

Amen!  Oh, by the way, do you know what “amen” means?  It means this is important; that’s why we say it at the end of a prayer.  God made us the stewards of the earth.  How shall we exercise our stewardship?  That’s the question!  Amen!

posted by Stacy Dyer '96
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